The Liberal Party’s leadership problem
The Liberal Party has a problem. Well, it has a few. But the selection of a new leader is its most pressing. After almost a decade as Prime Minister, amid terrible approval ratings and strife within his own party, Justin Trudeau has decided to call it quits. He will exit stage left as soon as a new party leader is chosen.
The new leader will be selected on March 9. And on March 24, Parliament will reconvene. In no time at all, the opposition parties will vote non-confidence. Canada will be thrust into an election.
For the many Liberal MPs who wanted Trudeau out, the field of potential replacements is already dwindling.
Already, cabinet members Anita Anand, Dominic LeBlanc, and Melanie Joly have announced they will not take part.
Mark Carney now seems to be the front runner, with the expectation that he will announce his candidacy shortly with the backing of over 30 MPs. Justin Trudeau seems out of touch, so these MPs expect that a former Goldman Sachs banker will now make them relatable. Best of luck with that strategy.
The other name that has been floated is Chrystia Freeland, who certainly helped to set off a chain of events that concluded in Justin Trudeau’s resignation. Though I expect she will find that her ties to Trudeau, and Canada’s economic performance since she took over as Finance Minister in 2020, will not work in her favour.
If it’s either of these candidates, it would send one message: Canada has changed. The Liberal Party has not.
But the issue is this: nobody wants the job.
The Liberal Party is not like other left-wing parties in Canada. The NDP runs knowing that (in most federal elections) they have no real chance of forming government. Because of this, a party leader can stay around for a few election cycles to build his or her image, and the reputation of the party.
With the Liberals and Conservatives, leaders get one chance to convince the public. Then you’re sent on your way. With the current poll numbers, which Liberals would sign up for that trip?
I predict that the Liberals will repeat the mistake of picking someone out of touch, but I expect it will be short lived. The Party now shown that they have no problem getting rid of a leader steering them into certain failure.
The Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre, will form a majority government. The left has no one to blame but themselves. 45% of Canadians are not conservatives, but they are expected to vote that way, according to polls. It’s time to take responsibility for losing the ear of people you are supposed to serve.
Conservatives will win because they have talked in a language that people understand. Homes, work, crime. And that’s not an endorsement of their solutions, but left-wing parties would like to talk about identity politics instead of pocketbooks. The latter is a more motivating factor.
I have a hope for after the election is over: a radical overhaul of the Canadian left.
As the most successful political party in Canadian history, the Liberals will have to reflect on how their centre-left approach fell out of favour with Canadians.
The NDP will also need to do some soul searching. In a time of record income inequality, a time of financial hardship for so many, and a time of record corporate profits, they are still a third-place party. Yes, they are still running slightly behind the Liberals. You tried the identity politics angle. It didn’t work. People want to talk about economics. Time to get over yourselves and nominate a leader that can bring that message to Canadians.
Through the Liberal NDP partnership, it seems that both parties’ political fortunes have been burned to a crisp. Now we wait to see what emerges from the embers.
